South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in has “predicted” Prime Minister Narendra Modi to become PM again. However, their ‘prediction’ came out of the unknowing thing. In fact, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in visit to India said during a joint declaration with PM Modi that he is eagerly waiting for Prime Minister’s visit to Korea in 2020.
He said, “I hope we will continue our close dialogue in various multilateral conferences.” However, it is being discussed whether PM Modi will be re-elected in the general elections to be held in 2019. But, this is an idea.
PM Narendra Modi will be the next Prime Minister whether or not he will know after the election. But, the notion of becoming Prime Minister, the damage to the country has been estimated. Christopher Wood, the equity strategist Christopher Wood, of the world’s largest brokerage house, CLSA, had said that if Modi does not become PM again, India will have 5 major losses.
First loss: Growth will take a blow
In the year 2019, there are general elections in the country. The BJP’s main face Narendra Modi will be on the lines of 2014. But, will he become PM again? Christopher Wood, an equity strategist of Brokerage House CLSA, says that if Narendra Modi does not come out again, then India’s growth will be a major setback. Christopher Wood had said in his wiki note Grid and Fearsome time ago that if Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not become the Prime Minister for five years then India’s growth story will be a big setback.
Second loss: rupee depreciation
The rupee is currently around the lower level of history. But, if the PM was not elected again in 2019 then the PM will get more rupees. There is a possibility of major weakness in rupees. Lower returns will be available on the stock market and the investment of mutual funds. Also, weakness in the rupee is expected to increase inflation.
Third loss: rising inflation
Buying crude from abroad will be costly when it comes to rupee depreciation. So the price of petrol and diesel will be increased. Before transportation costs increase, there will be an increase in food inflation and other things. So, there are clear indications of rising inflation in the country.
Fourth loss: rolled stock market
According to Christopher, if Modi remains the prime minister, then, in the long run, the Indian stock market will be the most profitable. However, this is not expected to perform very well in the first half of this year. Wood believes that the movements of Indian markets will also depend on the price of currency and crude oil.
Fifth loss: the investment cycle will start
Christopher Wood wrote in his note that the investment cycle in India is starting again. This will help in improving the NPA’s of the banking system. However, the biggest question is how long will the good results of these efforts come out and how much power and activation are implemented by the government on decisions related to improving the economy at its level. If PM Modi is not re-elected, then the new government will start the investment cycle accordingly.
In a report released recently by US firm Morgan Stanley, there was a possibility of a weak government in India. According to the report, in the general election next year, no party will be able to form the government on their own. In such a situation, the BJP will not be able to form the government on its own. According to the company, the weak coalition government is the biggest concern for investors.